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Published on April 22, 2023 by Gary Grappo

Imagine Russia in 2040

Published first at Fair Observer on April 10, 2023

In 2040, it is clear that Vladimir Putin’s imperial fever dream failed to adjust to the new reality of the bipolar world of the US and China. Russia is a second-rate power. Were it not for an aging nuclear weapons stock and a seat on the UN Security Council, Moscow would not command the world’s […]

Filed Under: Foreign Policy, Globalization, Russia-Ukraine War, US-Russia

Published on January 22, 2023 by Gary Grappo

Late Cardinal Pell Wrong, Pope Francis Plans New Future

Published first at Fair Observer on January 21, 2023

Decades-long sexual abuse of children, lack of financial transparency and Catholics abandoning the church challenge the world’s oldest institution. The late Cardinal George Pell’s reported accusation that Pope Francis was a “catastrophe” is misplaced. Francis is merely responding to the challenges of our times and preparing the church for the future. There was a time […]

Filed Under: Human Rights, Politics, Religion, United States

Published on November 19, 2022 by Gary Grappo

Totalitarianism Now Presents an Unprecedented Global Threat

Published first at Fair Observer on November 12, 2022

I am not a pessimistic person usually. My personal inclination and more than two and half decades as a diplomat have taught me the importance and value of remaining optimistic. Optimism for a diplomat is as essential as courage for a soldier. An effective diplomat is confident that persistent and effective diplomacy can solve a […]

Filed Under: Democracy, Foreign Policy, Globalization, Human Rights, Iran, National Security, NATO, Russia-Ukraine War, Saudi Arabia, Transnational Issues, United States, US President, US-China, US-Europe, US-Iran, US-Middle East, US-North Korea, US-Russia, US-Saudi Arabia

Published on October 11, 2022 by Gary Grappo

R.I.P. JCPOA?

Published first at Fair Observer on October 10, 2022

The best that may be said for the Iran nuclear accord, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), is that talks to renew the agreement are suspended; the worst, that it is on life support. Nevertheless, this current state of affairs may actually serve the interests of both the Iranian and American governments. The indirect […]

Filed Under: Foreign Policy, Iran, Middle East, National Security, US-Iran, US-Middle East

Published on September 21, 2022 by Gary Grappo

To Save Ukraine, America Must Help Europe

Published first at Fair Observer on September 18, 2022

Ukraine’s recent gains in the eastern sections of the country underscore the critical importance of continued Western support for Ukraine. The oncoming winter will test the West’s, and most especially Europe’s, commitment to maintain that support in order to provide Ukraine the political, economic and military backing indispensable to Ukraine’s ultimate victory. Ukrainians are rightly […]

Filed Under: Democracy, Foreign Policy, National Security, Politics, Russia-Ukraine War, United States, US President, US-Russia

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Could Trump’s Shocking Plan for Gaza Lead Anywhere?

February 7, 2025 By Gary Grappo

Experts say the president’s plan for Gaza as stated, isn’t feasible – but it could spark regional actors to take more action. BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT – As President Donald Trump doubles down on his idea of a U.S. takeover of Gaza, Arab governments are also doubling down on their objections and questions persist as to […]

Memo to the 47th President: A New and Dangerous Middle East

December 27, 2024 By Gary Grappo

EDITOR’S NOTE — Since Donald Trump’s victory in the November 5 election, The Cipher Brief has reached out to our network of experts for thoughts on what the priorities ought to be for the second Trump administration. Our ask was straightforward: If you were given the opportunity of a short visit with the president during his first days in […]

Post-Assad Syria: ‘Now Comes the Hard Part’

December 27, 2024 By Gary Grappo

A Cipher Brief expert with deep experience in the Middle East sees both danger and an “extraordinary opportunity” in the wake of Assad’s fall. EXPERT INTERVIEW — The headlines would have seemed fanciful two weeks ago: “Rebel Army Ousts Assad” – “The Fall of Assad” – “Assad Flees to Russia” – or our own, from Sunday: “Syria’s Political […]

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