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Published on October 28, 2023 by Gary Grappo

How the Israel-Hamas War Threatens the Middle East

Published first at Fair Observer on October 27, 2023

An Israeli victory is Iran’s worst case scenario. Therefore, Tehran is likely to activate its allies to undermine Israel without provoking all-out war. However, intensifying conflict in Gaza amplifies chances of miscalculation and a second Arab Uprisings could engulf the Middle East. Question: Setting aside for a moment the epicenter of the current Israeli-Hamas War […]

Filed Under: Foreign Policy, Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Middle East, Mideast Peace, Palestinian Territories, Terrorism, United States, US President, US-Iran, US-Middle East

Published on October 28, 2023 by Gary Grappo

FO° Live: Make Sense of the New Israel-Gaza War

Published first at Fair Observer on October 17, 2023

In this FO° Live discussion, an eminent US diplomat, a distinguished retired CIA officer and an Indian public intellectual examine the context of the latest Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. Ambassador Gary Grappo served as Envoy and Head of Mission of the Office of the Quartet Representative, the Honorable Mr. Tony Blair, in Jerusalem. He held […]

Filed Under: Foreign Policy, Iran, Middle East, Mideast Peace, Palestinian Territories, United States, US President, US-Iran, US-Middle East, US-Saudi Arabia

Published on October 28, 2023 by Gary Grappo

This Israel–Hamas Conflict Is Not The Same

Published first at Fair Observer on October 10, 2023

From October 7, Hamas has launched a wide-scale rocket and ground attack on Israeli soil, killing hundreds. It is the largest incursion into Israeli territory since 1948. Hamas has likely chosen now to attack because they are encouraged by their Iranian backers. It is up to Israel now to repel the attack and figure out […]

Filed Under: Foreign Policy, Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Middle East, Mideast Peace, National Security, Palestinian Territories, Saudi Arabia, US President, US-Iran, US-Middle East

Published on September 1, 2023 by Gary Grappo

Is There a US–Iran “Non-Agreement”?

Published first at Fair Observer on August 31, 2023

Neither side has made an official announcement. There has been no ceremony to commemorate a settlement of issues. Yet, actions by the parties reported by the media suggest that something is up between these long-time enemies, the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Searching for a term to explain what may be happening, some media are […]

Filed Under: Foreign Policy, Middle East, National Security, Politics, US Sanctions, US-Iran, US-Middle East

Published on September 1, 2023 by Gary Grappo

Israel Moves to Round Two of Its Democracy Stress Test

Published first at Fair Observer on August 7, 2023

Having successfully overturned the supreme court’s “reasonableness” doctrine, Israel’s right-wing Knesset coalition now advances to the next round in its plan to re-write—and re-right—the rules of judicial authority in the Jewish state. Opposition members having walked out, Israel’s Knesset passed legislation last week by a 64-0 vote to eliminate “reasonableness” as a ground for the […]

Filed Under: Civil Society, Democracy, Foreign Policy, Israel

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Could Trump’s Shocking Plan for Gaza Lead Anywhere?

February 7, 2025 By Gary Grappo

Experts say the president’s plan for Gaza as stated, isn’t feasible – but it could spark regional actors to take more action. BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT – As President Donald Trump doubles down on his idea of a U.S. takeover of Gaza, Arab governments are also doubling down on their objections and questions persist as to […]

Memo to the 47th President: A New and Dangerous Middle East

December 27, 2024 By Gary Grappo

EDITOR’S NOTE — Since Donald Trump’s victory in the November 5 election, The Cipher Brief has reached out to our network of experts for thoughts on what the priorities ought to be for the second Trump administration. Our ask was straightforward: If you were given the opportunity of a short visit with the president during his first days in […]

Post-Assad Syria: ‘Now Comes the Hard Part’

December 27, 2024 By Gary Grappo

A Cipher Brief expert with deep experience in the Middle East sees both danger and an “extraordinary opportunity” in the wake of Assad’s fall. EXPERT INTERVIEW — The headlines would have seemed fanciful two weeks ago: “Rebel Army Ousts Assad” – “The Fall of Assad” – “Assad Flees to Russia” – or our own, from Sunday: “Syria’s Political […]

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