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Published on December 17, 2014 by Gary Grappo

The Collapse of Iraq Would Open a New Front in the Sunni-Shia War

Published first at Global Post on June 16, 2014

The collapse of security on Iraq’s western and northern fronts portends a number of disturbing outcomes, from partitioning to, in a twist of irony, Iraq inviting Iranian troops to fill the role of the US before its withdrawal. Iraq is collapsing. The Middle Eastern nation, where nearly 4,500 American lives were lost and nearly one […]

Filed Under: Foreign Policy

Published on December 17, 2014 by Gary Grappo

Palestinian Unity Government: What’s Next for the Peace Effort?

Published first at Fair Observer on June 4, 2014

Despite the breakdown in peace negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians, both sides must continue to talk. If no Israeli, Palestinian or American alternative is able to break the ice jam of peace negotiations, what can happen? The answer is the least satisfying and most uncertain option: keep talking. But how? Failure by the Israelis and […]

Filed Under: Foreign Policy

Published on December 17, 2014 by Gary Grappo

GCC Moves into Uncertain Territory

Published first at Gulf State Analytics Monthly Monitor Report on May 2014

Weakening Ties That Bind Two founding principles have netted together the states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) since its founding in 1981: their collective security and the protection and reliability of oil exports. These interests also served as the linchpin of the GCC states – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United […]

Filed Under: Foreign Policy

Published on December 17, 2014 by Gary Grappo

What Happens After Mideast Peace Deadline Passes with No Framework?

Published first at Global Post on May 28, 2014

Among many difficult options, the least satisfactory would be to keep talking. Israelis and Palestinians failed to reach any kind of agreement before the April 30 deadline set by Secretary of State John Kerry. So, what do the parties and the United States do now? Even before negotiations ended, Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu and President […]

Filed Under: Foreign Policy

Published on December 17, 2014 by Gary Grappo

Clash of Old and New Complicates Middle East Peace

Published first at Fair Observer on May 26, 2014

Settlements and recognizing Israel as a Jewish state are symbolic of the distrust between Israelis and Palestinians. The older of these two challenges resurfaced only recently in the now “suspended” negotiations between the two sides but, in fact, has been at the core of Israeli aspirations since the dawn of the Zionist movement in the […]

Filed Under: Foreign Policy

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FO° Talks: Trump’s 20-Point Peace Deal: Can Israel and Hamas Finally End the War?

November 15, 2025 By Gary Grappo

In this episode of FO° Talks, Atul Singh and Gary Grappo examine US President Donald Trump’s 20-point peace deal, which has halted Gaza bloodshed and secured a hostage release. The plan, though the strongest diplomacy in a decade, faces enormous obstacles, including Hamas’s refusal to disarm and Israel’s reluctance to accept Palestinian statehood. The deal’s […]

Could Trump’s Shocking Plan for Gaza Lead Anywhere?

February 7, 2025 By Gary Grappo

Experts say the president’s plan for Gaza as stated, isn’t feasible – but it could spark regional actors to take more action. BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT – As President Donald Trump doubles down on his idea of a U.S. takeover of Gaza, Arab governments are also doubling down on their objections and questions persist as to […]

Memo to the 47th President: A New and Dangerous Middle East

December 27, 2024 By Gary Grappo

EDITOR’S NOTE — Since Donald Trump’s victory in the November 5 election, The Cipher Brief has reached out to our network of experts for thoughts on what the priorities ought to be for the second Trump administration. Our ask was straightforward: If you were given the opportunity of a short visit with the president during his first days in […]

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