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Published on June 1, 2024 by Gary Grappo

What Happens Now That the Iranian President Is Dead?

Published first at Fair Observer on May 29, 2024

The recent death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash has created uncertainty regarding the nation’s future. Gary Grappo, a retired US diplomat with extensive regional experience, provides insight into the potential implications. The president is a figurehead, and the immediate effects will be minimal. Still, Raisi’s death highlights the instability of the […]

Filed Under: Foreign Policy, Iran, Israel, Mideast Peace, US-Iran

Published on May 26, 2024 by Gary Grappo

FO° Talks: The ICC Arrest Warrant for Netanyahu Is Devastating

Published first at Fair Observer on May 24, 2024

In this Fair Observer webcast, FO Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh speaks with Middle East veteran diplomat Gary Grappo about the most recent Internal Criminal Court request for arrest warrants for israeli and Hamas leaders, including Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. Listen to their conversation at this link. ICC prosecutor Karim Ahmad Khan has requested arrest warrants […]

Filed Under: Foreign Policy, Israel, Middle East, Mideast Peace, Palestinian Territories, Politics, US-Middle East

Published on May 26, 2024 by Gary Grappo

Make Sense of the Latest Israel-Iran Clash

Published first at Faor Observer on May 21, 2024

On April 14 and April 19, Iran and Israel struck each other’s national territories for the first time. While both countries’ leaderships want to avoid further escalation, risks of an Israel-Iran war have risen while prospects for a peaceful solution to the Israel-Hamas War seem bleak. Protests have broken out in American college campuses and […]

Filed Under: Iran, Israel, Middle East, Mideast Peace, Palestinian Territories, United States, US-Iran, US-Middle East

Published on May 26, 2024 by Gary Grappo

May Hasn’t Been a Good Month for Netanyahu or Israel

Published first at Fair Observer on May 25, 2024

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is hemmed in. Hamas is resurging in previously cleared areas of Gaza, and with their tunnel network intact, their leaders remain at large. War cabinet members Benny Gantz and Yoav Gallant are putting pressure on Netanyahu to develop an exit plan, yet no option seems viable. US President Joe Biden […]

Filed Under: Foreign Policy, Iran, Israel, Middle East, Mideast Peace, Palestinian Territories, Politics, United States, US-Middle East

Published on May 11, 2024 by Gary Grappo

FO° Talks: Israel’s Invasion of Gaza Will Not Be Over Quickly

Published first at Fair Observer on February 27, 2024

The Israel–Hamas War rages on. Israel intends to eliminate the Hamas threat completely, with no apparent possibility yet of negotiating a ceasefire. Meanwhile, Houthi militants in Yemen are disrupting shipping through the Red Sea. This makes trade between Europe and Asia difficult and will have serious economic implications as the attacks continue. As Middle Eastern […]

Filed Under: Extremism, Human Rights, Iran, Lebanon, Middle East, Mideast Peace, Palestinian Territories, Terrorism, United States, US-Iran, US-Middle East

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Could Trump’s Shocking Plan for Gaza Lead Anywhere?

February 7, 2025 By Gary Grappo

Experts say the president’s plan for Gaza as stated, isn’t feasible – but it could spark regional actors to take more action. BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT – As President Donald Trump doubles down on his idea of a U.S. takeover of Gaza, Arab governments are also doubling down on their objections and questions persist as to […]

Memo to the 47th President: A New and Dangerous Middle East

December 27, 2024 By Gary Grappo

EDITOR’S NOTE — Since Donald Trump’s victory in the November 5 election, The Cipher Brief has reached out to our network of experts for thoughts on what the priorities ought to be for the second Trump administration. Our ask was straightforward: If you were given the opportunity of a short visit with the president during his first days in […]

Post-Assad Syria: ‘Now Comes the Hard Part’

December 27, 2024 By Gary Grappo

A Cipher Brief expert with deep experience in the Middle East sees both danger and an “extraordinary opportunity” in the wake of Assad’s fall. EXPERT INTERVIEW — The headlines would have seemed fanciful two weeks ago: “Rebel Army Ousts Assad” – “The Fall of Assad” – “Assad Flees to Russia” – or our own, from Sunday: “Syria’s Political […]

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