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Published on January 18, 2020 by Gary Grappo

Who Wins and Loses in the Middle East?

Published first at Fair Observer on January 10, 2020

By dialing back its response to the latest crisis, Iran stands a better chance of achieving a major strategic objective in the region: America’s departure from Iraq. Following Iran’s missile attacks on a two US airbase, one outside Baghdad and the second near Erbil in Iraqi Kurdistan, US President Donald Trump almost triumphantly announced that […]

Filed Under: Foreign Policy, GCC, Iran, Iraq, Iraq-US, Middle East, National Security, Sectarianism, Terrorism, United States, US-Iran, US-Middle East, US-Russia

Published on January 4, 2020 by Gary Grappo

The Stage Is Set for the Middle East in 2020

Published first at Fair Observer on January 3, 2020

The US drone strike against General Qassem Soleimani and other pro-Iran militia leaders has further escalated the tit-for-tat series of actions between the US and Iran. The last several weeks have seen a dangerous escalation in US-Iran tensions in the Gulf. Following the pro-Iranian, Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah’s (KH) attack on a US facility that […]

Filed Under: Extremism, Foreign Policy, Iran, Iraq, Iraq-US, Middle East, National Security, Politics, Terrorism, United States, US President, US-Iran

Published on November 26, 2019 by Gary Grappo

US Position on Legality of Israeli Settlements Not Good for Peace

Published first at Fair Observer on November 25, 2019

Regardless of how one may argue the case of Israeli settlement legality, America’s decision not to consider West Bank settlements illegal drives down the possibility of resolving this decades-long dispute. On November 18, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced that the US would no longer view Israeli settlements in the West Bank as illegal. The decision […]

Filed Under: Foreign Policy, Israel, Middle East, Mideast Peace, Palestinian Territories, United States, US President, US-Middle East

Published on November 18, 2019 by Gary Grappo

Confessions of a Public Servant

Published first at The Cipher Brief on November 18, 2019

Events in Washington last week were gut-wrenching for many, not least for America’s Foreign Service and the two million other public servants of the United States. They were also inspiring and cause for much pride. At present, the House of Representatives impeachment hearings are largely driven not by senior political figures or high-priced lawyers (yet) […]

Filed Under: Democracy, Foreign Policy, Impeachment, Politics, United States, US President

Published on October 26, 2019 by Gary Grappo

Facing the Consequences of Abandoning the Kurds

Published first at Fair Observer on October 25, 2019

Following Donald Trump’s decision to suddenly abandon the Syrian Kurds, we still don’t know what the full aftermath of the move will entail. The sad tragedy of US President Donald Trump’s precipitous decision to suddenly abandon the Kurds of northern Syria is that it may have been inevitable. Turkey had long warned the Americans that […]

Filed Under: Democracy, Extremism, Foreign Policy, Middle East, National Security, Sectarianism, Syrian Crisis, Terrorism, United States, US President, US-Middle East

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Could Trump’s Shocking Plan for Gaza Lead Anywhere?

February 7, 2025 By Gary Grappo

Experts say the president’s plan for Gaza as stated, isn’t feasible – but it could spark regional actors to take more action. BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT – As President Donald Trump doubles down on his idea of a U.S. takeover of Gaza, Arab governments are also doubling down on their objections and questions persist as to […]

Memo to the 47th President: A New and Dangerous Middle East

December 27, 2024 By Gary Grappo

EDITOR’S NOTE — Since Donald Trump’s victory in the November 5 election, The Cipher Brief has reached out to our network of experts for thoughts on what the priorities ought to be for the second Trump administration. Our ask was straightforward: If you were given the opportunity of a short visit with the president during his first days in […]

Post-Assad Syria: ‘Now Comes the Hard Part’

December 27, 2024 By Gary Grappo

A Cipher Brief expert with deep experience in the Middle East sees both danger and an “extraordinary opportunity” in the wake of Assad’s fall. EXPERT INTERVIEW — The headlines would have seemed fanciful two weeks ago: “Rebel Army Ousts Assad” – “The Fall of Assad” – “Assad Flees to Russia” – or our own, from Sunday: “Syria’s Political […]

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